Monday, 19 November, 2018

NOAA Predicts Warmer Winter for Much of the US

A plow makes its way under a railroad bridge as light snow falls during a snowstorm March 21 in Lebanon N.J A plow makes its way under a railroad bridge as light snow falls during a snowstorm March 21 in Lebanon N.J
Theresa Hayes | 20 October, 2018, 11:24

"From about, maybe NY and northward, that's all above a 40 percent confidence, so that's between a 40 and 50 percent chance that temperatures will be above average", says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Maryland.

The Climate Prediction Center issues updates its 3-month outlooks once per month, NOAA said, and the next update for this winter is expected November 15. "Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North".

NOAA released its 2018-2019 Winter Outlook for the United States. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern".

The Southeast, on the other hand, has equal chances of experiencing above-average, normal, or below-average temperatures.

"Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic", NOAA said in a statement.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

If NOAA's outlook holds true and much of the nation is milder than normal, it will mark the fourth straight warmer-than-normal winter for the Lower 48.

With the Southeast the only region not projected to have above-normal temperatures, that could mean a few winter storms will bring snow to the Deep South, which can cause major disruption to the region.

The Carolinas should also look out for the "Arcitc Ocillation", which NOAA says determines "the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South" and could lead to below-average temperatures.

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.

Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.

- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month.

If the snowfall earlier this week reminded you how much you don't like the winter cold, you may be in luck.