Original story:The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances that a tropical system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico to 90 percent over five days as an area of storminess southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula becomes better organized.
If the system strengthens, it will mark an early start to the 2018 hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. A storm of this type is not unusual for this time period and region. Their effects are exactly the same, and the move in the same pattern.
On Thursday, the aspiring Alberto was a soggy mass centered on the southeastern coast of Yucatan Peninsula with showers extending all the way to Florida's west coast. The storm is expected to make landfall as a 65 miles per hour Tropical Storm on Monday along the northern Gulf coast.
An early tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico could mean a wet Memorial Day weekend for Northeast Florida and a soggy Jacksonville Jazz Festival as well.
But Alberto does have the potential to bring 4-6 inches of rain to Citrus County before this all goes away by Tuesday.
He said: "GFS still doesn't show much of a circulation focusing over the Gulf for very long, instead, a mess over east of Florida, while Euro does". Skies will be mostly sunny, and temperatures warm in the 80s; ideal for Memorial Day outdoor festivities.
National Weather Service meteorologists said details of the weekend forecast are dependent on the track and development of would-be Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico. It's also possible Alberto will transition into a more standard tropical storm.
"For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office".
Prior to 2002 subtropical storms were not given names, but the Tropical Prediction Center issued forecasts and warnings on them similar to those for tropical cyclones. Subtropical systems pack the same hazards - heavy rain and wind - but lack the warm center of a tropical system. "The main impact will be heavy rains that could exacerbate rivers and areas prone to flooding".