Friday, 23 March, 2018

Leak: No deal Brexit 'would cost 9% of Scotland's GDP'

GETTYThe EU looks set to punish Britain during the Brexit transition period GETTYThe EU looks set to punish Britain during the Brexit transition period
Melinda Barton | 08 February, 2018, 14:09

The British government's own analysis of the economic impact of Brexit shows a potential fall in gross domestic product growth of up to 16 percent relative to current forecasts.

The UK government had argued that releasing the analysis to the public could damage its negotiations with the EU.

The SNP has now called on the United Kingdom government to publish its Brexit analysis in full following the leak.

The latest leak of the UK Government's Brexit papers reveals Whitehall's economic assessment of various scenarios broken down by region.

Motor vehicles, meanwhile, may see 5-13% cost increases, with 8-16% for food and drink, and 6-12% for chemical, rubber, and plastic.

Under "no deal" arrangements the hit would be 13 per cent, while in the unlikely event that the United Kingdom stays in the single market growth would drop by 2.5 per cent.

The forecasts, seen by MPs, model the 15-year impact of the United Kingdom staying in the single market, doing a trade deal with the European Union or leaving without a deal.

The leaked figures showed the north east would take an 11% hit to economic growth under a free trade deal with the European Union, while leaving with no deal would result in a 16% dip, and staying in the single market would amount to a 3% decline.

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: "The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the United Kingdom".

'People did not vote to make themselves poorer.

Economists said the benefits from boosting trade with non-EU countries would not offset the slower growth forecast under every form of Brexit. We've shown we can do that.

It comes as the Cabinet tries to establish a common position on the Northern Ireland border in the crucial subcommittee meeting in Parliament on Wednesday.

The UK government said the leaked document "does not represent UK Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations".

"As ministers clearly set out in the House, this is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress".

"We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK".

The best possible trade deal between the United Kingdom and U.S. would provide nearly half of any gain from all non-EU deals, raising pressure on Theresa May to strike an agreement with Donald Trump as quickly as possible after Britain leaves the EU.