Thursday, 21 September, 2017

IMF Raises Growth Forecast for the Global Economy

CBI delegation to depart for US CBI delegation to embark for IMF/World Bank spring meetings
Melinda Barton | 20 April, 2017, 06:54

Revised data shows an uptick in global growth from 3,1% to 3,5% this year, together with an unimproved rate in 2018.

The IMF lifted Japan's 2017 growth projection by 0.4 percentage point from January, to 1.2%, while the eurozone and China both saw a 0.1 percentage point growth forecast increase to 1.7% and 6.6%, respectively.

It also voiced concerns about the rapid credit growth in China, risks that were also highlighted in the IMF's World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

"There's no issue of additional measures for 2018, as the problem of the different forecasts has already been resolved since May 2016, as part of the first [program] review, with the law on the fiscal contingency mechanism", the sources said. The report notes other downside risks to the forecast include tightening financial conditions in emerging markets, slow productivity growth in some advanced economies, geopolitical tensions, and terrorism.

This is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 1.5 per cent growth predicted in January and 0.9 points higher than the GDP growth predicted in October.

Earlier, in its January review International Monetary Fund downgraded India's growth estimate to 6.6 per cent on the account of demonetisation losses.

The report said: "The modest recovery is projected to be supported by a mildly expansionary fiscal stance, accommodative financial conditions, a weaker euro, and beneficial spillovers from a likely US fiscal stimulus; political uncertainty as elections approach in several countries, coupled with uncertainty about the European Union's future relationship with the United Kingdom, is expected to weigh on activity".

By contrast, the Bank of Canada projects the economy will expand by 2.6 per cent this year, up from its previous estimate of 2.1 per cent growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its United Kingdom growth forecast for the second time this year, saying the economy held up in the wake of the Brexit vote.

The IMF report stressed that risks to the outlook "remain tilted to the downside", meaning that while growth could turn out to be faster than expected - particularly if there is a large USA government spending program - there are more negative possibilities on the horizon.

The report also stated that emerging market and developing economies have become increasingly important in the global economy in recent years.

"Policymakers must balance the economic benefits of policy stimulus and tax reform against broader policy considerations and guard against financial stability risks", the International Monetary Fund said.